Mr. Tamaki Tsukada – Ambassador of Japan in Iran

It is an honor and at the same time an onerous task to speak on the prospects for peace and development in a region where conflicts rage and prospects for permanent peace or sustainable development are opaque. But I guess, it is for this reason that diplomats and diplomacy exist – to work on the impossible and imponderable.

Before zooming into the region I want to talk about how we diagnose the current state of the world and our idea of how we should approach that situation.

International community finds itself at a turning point in history. There were both positives and negatives brought by the end of cold war: most notably, expansion of the rules-based international order (RBIO) led primarily by US and the west; economic globalization and interdependence.

As we migrate into a post-post-cold war period, new trends, or mega-trends, have emerged:

• Trend 1: growing disparity between countries and within countries;
• Trend 2: rise of the Global South;
• Trend 3: expansion of the scope of national security in two directions; one direction is economic security, such as supply-chain resilience and critical and emerging technologies. The other direction is cyber security.
• Trend 4: the amplification of cross-border issues, such as climate change and pandemic.

There are three mega challenges that emanate from these mega-trends that we need to wrestle with.

1) One is the challenge against the free and open RBIO. The rise and resistance from Global South – as well as other major powers – is translating into a movement to discredit the extant RBIO and push for an alternative order which is increasing the likelihood of pitting the existing RBIO against rival arrangements, resulting in intensified zero-sum competition.

Today, this competition is manifesting itself in three regional flashpoints that could potentially develop into a major war involving great powers.

In Europe, war between Russia and Ukraine threatens to escalate into a direct NATO-Russia clash.

In the Middle East, the Israel-Hamas war is becoming regional, and tensions between Iran and Israel are poised to escalate into a dangerous level; these are events that are destabilizing in their own right but they could also drag great powers into a broader regional conflagration.

The last but not least, flashpoint is East Asia, where tensions between the US and China broil over Taiwan, East and South China Sea.

A new order needs to render such regional flashpoints more predictable and less subject to the effects of rival visions of regional order.

In my view, much of the future of the international order will depend on the course of relations between Washington and Beijing in the coming years.

However, since it would exceed the scope of today’s discussion, I will not go further into this topic, but suffice to mention that the nature of U.S.-China relationship transcends geography; and the breadth of the thematic scope it entails would go far beyond security in its conventional sense but would include trade, technology, climate change, and other global issues – this is what distinguishes U.S.-China relations from others.

2) The second big challenge is the negative consequences of globalization and interdependence. The use of economic coercion and sanctions has grown significantly over the past decades and is likely to become more common in the future. The complexity and extensive outreach of global supply chain and overdependence on one supply source is creating a situation where great powers are more tempted to use, and smaller countries are more vulnerable to, economic coercion and sanctions.

Economic security challenges are extending into wider areas of intellectual property theft and dominance through over-lending and debt unsustainability.

These problems bring home to us the need to strengthen the international norms, laws, and institutions that regulate the use of force and coercion in international relations.

3) The third big challenge is the cross-border planetary threat derived from complex global issues such as climate and pandemics and the development of science and technology, most notably in the realm of cyber and artificial intelligence; clash of national interests at the low level has made it hard to develop the political will needed to respond to these threats.

International cooperation is the only way forward to overcome these existential planetary threat.

What reforms of the current global governing system are necessary to make it fit for a world increasingly nonchalant about RBIO?

Although the Cold War featured what were, in effect, two separate international orders, there was still a burgeoning, if imperfect, superstructure in the form of the United Nations, along with a growing body of international law and norms.

Consequently, the way forward is neither the promotion of the RBIO in its existing form nor the pursuit of a rival order.

Rather, for the sake of peace and stability, we need an enhanced RBIO, or we may call it RBIO 2.0, which will comprise enhanced norms and laws to rejuvenate an inclusive global order that is rooted in international law, multilateralism, and the ability of states to participate on an equal basis.

What would be needed to achieve that?

• First and foremost, we need a fundamental revamp of the UN Security Council; institutions are not set in stones. The current UN security council is the reflection of the 1945 settlement of World War II; today’s reality does not validate the current format.
• Second, we need rules to regulate economic coercion and sanctions, tightening norms around the use of force, rules or governance for climate security, global health, cyber space, AI and other emerging risks.

States should prevent geopolitics from holding trade and development hostage, should seek new models of development compatible with countering climate change, and resolve to govern matters of trade, debt relief, and unilateral coercive measures through equitable multilateral institutions.

Finally, I would like to turn to the Middle East again; the deteriorating conditions between Israelis and Palestinians and the absence of a security architecture in the Middle East seem to be two key contributing factors to the region’s instability.

On the former, multiple attempts have failed; the U.S.-led peace process to forgo resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in favor of pursuing partial economic and security integration in the region have arguably not been conducive to building a positive environment.

On the question of lack of a standing regional security architecture; existing organizations such as the GCC or the Arab League are exclusive by nature; the former is purely a subregional organization that excludes Iran and Iraq, while the latter excludes non-Arab states.

As part of our efforts to uphold and upgrade the RBIO, we will proactively engage in diplomatic dialogues to work for a stable order and governance of the region through various channels and fora.

Japan on its part, we will continue to contribute to easing regional tensions and stabilizing the situation through diplomatic efforts on the back of our traditional good relations with all countries and parties in the Middle East and on the strength of its fundamental security alliance relationship with the US which gives Japan a special leverage to influence US.

In the context of the situation surrounding Gaza and Lebanon, Japan, cognizant of our responsibility as a global power of peace, will continue to engage bilaterally with parties concerned to calm and temper the situation and prevent spill over or escalation.

In parallel, Japan as a global power of human security and development has provided humanitarian assistance to Palestine and Lebanon bilaterally and through international organizations and NGOs. Since October last year, the amount has totaled 130 million USD.

For Japan, the Middle East has been and will continue to be the most important region of energy supply; Japan depends on the region for 90% of its crude oil imports.

Peace and stability of the region including safety of navigation are fundamental for energy security and the economic well-being of itself and the global economy.